Value Investor Daily #78

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This Time It's (NOT) Different

Sven Carlin gave a quick breakdown of where we are in the big market cycle:

• We’re somewhere between Delusion and “New Paradigm.”

• Analysts expect corporate earnings to grow almost 50% in the next few years

• Corporate margins are near their all-time peak

• What usually follows is a bubble burst

• Treasuries still make more sense here at 4.33% yield than overvalued companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla

• As a value investor, you must look out ten years from today—until 2035.

• Every decade has challenges, from inflation to war a lousy economy and pandemics. The 2030s will be no different; new challenges will still exist.

• In summary—this time is NOT different.

• The key to value investing is to invest for the ten-year scenario in which the market flops, but your stocks are still okay.

• For example, the economy slows down, inflation continues, interest rates stay high, etc., but food producer ADM is still protected against inflation, and strong demand for their product, along with a hefty dividend, will almost certainly continue.

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